Stock Market, and then some

There's this article in Inquirer today which discussed the difference between saving and being miserly. I really hate it when people say refer to others as kuripot (being miserly) since each person has his own way of saving up or cutting down on costs. Who are we to say which route would the best way to go about it?

Another thing that annoys me is when people refer to me as Intsik (Chinese) when I discuss the options on how to earn more, be it from side businesses or investment options. So what's so wrong with wanting to get the most of what you have, and more if possible? I'm actually looking at this plan from Manulife wherein I pay a fixed amount for 10 years, and upon the plan's maturity (20 years), my investment would have earned 162% already. Well of course, the annual interest would vary depending on the market conditions, but the range of 4 to 8% is not so bad anymore. At least this kind of investment has an assured return, instead of investing it in a bond fund (mutual fund or UITF) wherein the principal is not assured though the returns is in roughly the same range. And compared to a time deposit or savings account (which is 2.25% and 1% respectively) that is still subject to 20% withholding tax, 4% per annum is not bad at all.

I discussed this with two other officemates since 1 of them was also considering the same plan I was looking at. We were trying to convince our other officemate about the benefits of the plan, only to be called "Intsik ka talaga, and that's derogatory".

Now that I think about it, do you mean the term Intsik is derogatory, or are you dissing me now? I didn't bother clarifying that anymore. Bottomline is, so what if I want to earn more? I'm not doing it illegally so what's up with that?

Anyhow, I attended this seminar last week, and another one last night (Tecnical Analysis in Stock Trading, and Market Outlook 2008). According to them, should the PSEi breach 2850 points after the double test of support, then the Phil market would officially be in the bear market already. As of today (30 Jan 2008), the PSEi closed at 3,256.53, so it's still far off from the 2850 range. I just hope that the market doesnt reach the 2900 level since I'd be forced to sell all my position, or hold until the next bull run. during the seminar last night, the speaker mentioned that the 75-B Stimulus Fund has been approved by President Arroyo already, so here's to hoping that I feel the benefit of the supposed income tax reduction as well as the reduction in electricity rates.

Wrong Timing

The PSEi plummetted to a low 0f 2,978.41 when markets closed last Jan 22, 2008, the lowest since August 2007 when the US Subprime Crisis first made a huge impact in markets worldwide. I never imagined that it would come to this again in less than a year, which makes me just shake my head since I shifted my fund too soon into Equity when I should have left it in Bonds, and moved it just now. Oh well, lesson learned.

I'm really tempted to buy in more right now since the NAV is quite low, and when the market recovers hopefully by mid-2008, I could just ride the wave and earn then. But since my Tubby and I are looking to closing in on a condominium this year, he's not too keen on increasing our investments just yet.

Stocks at the start of 2008

It's quite unfortunate for me that I bought stocks when the PSEi was still in the 3500 to 3600 marker since the stock prices were still near its peak. So now that the market is doing some side stepping, if not a nosedive, my stocks are all in the red.

Yesterday marked the lowest PSEi close at 3388.81 after several weeks (shedding 90points), which was quite expected since the DJIA shed nearly 200points prior to the Philippine market open. I tried calling my Sunlife agent to shift my funds from Bonds to Equity since I'm supposed to decide before the market closes so the buy NAV would be the closing NAV for the day. Just my luck that she was in a meeting during those critical moments when I've finally decided to make the move. The Sunlife VUL Equity NAV closed at 1.9504, the lowest for the past few weeks based on my spot checking. It would've been great for my VUL if the market would still slide today, but based on the market performance as of 11AM (Manila Time), most of the stocks have recovered some of what they've lost yesterday. Oh well -- good for my stocks, bad time for my VUL. At this rate, I'll just sit back and wait for another major slide.

I'm really tempted to buy into TEL when it drops again since I've seen it hit Php3100, so if I buy at Php2990 at the minumum boardlot amount of 10, I'd easily make Php1100 gross since I'd still have to deduct the transaction charges. Well, it would be paper gain if ever, unless I sell it to convert it to real cash balance so I could buy into other stocks. Bah-humbug.

Well, on a side note, the Sunlife VUL Equity is invested primarily in the following stocks: TEL, GLO, AC, ALI, BPI, SM, BDO, ICT, SMPH and MEG. Telecom, Property, and Banks. Not a bad portfolio if I say so myself. But as I read in a previous article, don't bother investing in stocks where your Mutual Fund is invested in already. It's like mimicking the fund manager already, and in my books, it's such a waste of time. If you're going to do that, might as well just invest all your cash in the Mutual Fund and save yourself the trouble of having to monitor the market and make calls on when to buy or sell. Funny thing is, I'm into ALI and BDO already, and I'm even thinking of buying into TEL. Maybe I'll look at other stocks then, just so I spread my portfolio. Maybe MER since they're having a price hike this 2008. Have to rethink my strategy then.

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Updates: I've decided to finally shift my fund today. Spoke to my Sunlife agent, and their Investment Manager has foreseen that the PSEi will go as low at 3250 this month, but projection is still at 4000 for end-2008. For the shifting, it won't use the closing NAV for the day that you've decided to shift it, and you have until 4PM of the current day to fax the shift request. Since I shifted today, my fund will use tomorrow's closing VUL Equity NAV. Here's to hoping that it's still below Php2.00/share.